Today in one sentence: The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said the government shutdown will permanently reduce U.S. economic output by up to $14 billion if it continues through November; SNAP benefits for 42 million Americans will lapse on November 1 for the first time in the program’s history as the government shutdown; premiums for Affordable Care Act plans will rise about 26% next year; the White House found about $5.3 billion to pay U.S. troops during the shutdown; the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to a range of 3.75% to 4%; Senate Democrats demanded a “complete accounting” of private donations funding Trump’s $300 million White House ballroom; Maryland’s Democratic Senate president blocked his party’s plan to redraw the state’s congressional map to counter Republican gains in other states; a Democratic congressional candidate in Illinois was indicted by a federal grand jury for allegedly impeding an ICE agent during a protest; two weeks after millions of Americans joined “No Kings” protests in the U.S., South Korea presented Trump with a replica gold crown; and Trump finally acknowledged that “it’s pretty clear, I’m not allowed to run” for a third, unconstitutional term, after months of suggesting he might try anyway.

1/ The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said the government shutdown will permanently reduce U.S. economic output by up to $14 billion if it continues through November. As the government shutdown nears its fifth week, the CBO estimates that a four-week shutdown would erase $7 billion in GDP, rising to $11 billion after six weeks and $14 billion after eight. The CBO also projected that GDP will fall by up to 2 percentage points in the fourth quarter of 2025, with roughly 650,000 federal employees furloughed each week. (NBC News / Bloomberg / Politico / CNBC / Washington Post)

2/ SNAP benefits for 42 million Americans will lapse on November 1 for the first time in the program’s history as the government shutdown. Senate Republicans blocked a Democratic bill to extend food aid, saying they won’t consider stand-alone measures until the government reopens. “We’re not going to let them pick winners and losers,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said. Democrats, meanwhile, accused Trump of “weaponizing hunger” by refusing to use emergency funds to maintain the benefits. The cutoff would end food assistance for one in eight Americans. (Politico / Axios / CNN / Wall Street Journal / Politico / Axios / CNN)

3/ Premiums for Affordable Care Act plans will rise about 26% next year, including 30% in states using Healthcare.gov and 17% in state-run marketplaces. Those increases reflect what insurers charge, but many families would see their actual payments more than double if enhanced federal subsidies expire on December 31. The lapse would leave consumers paying for both the higher base rates and the full share that subsidies had been covering. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the renewing the subsidies would cost $350 billion over the next decade. Senate Democrats tied reopening the government to extending the aid, while Trump and Republicans said they would not negotiate until the shutdown ends. (The Guardian / New York Times / CNN / Associated Press / The Hill / KFF)

4/ The White House found about $5.3 billion to pay U.S. troops during the shutdown, shifting money from military housing, research, and Navy shipbuilding accounts. A senior official said, “We have identified more money if this goes longer.”Democrats, however, said the workarounds violate Congress’ powers to appropriate money, but haven’t moved to block military pay. (Axios)

5/ The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to a range of 3.75% to 4%, its second consecutive cut this year. Chair Jerome Powell warned that officials were “driving in the fog” as the government shutdown has stopped both the jobs and inflation reports, leaving the Fed uncertain about the strength of the job market and the path of inflation. He said policymakers faced “upside risks to inflation, downside risks to employment,” and that “there is no risk-free path.” Powell added that another rate cut in December was “not a foregone conclusion.” (Wall Street Journal / Politico / Washington Post / CNBC / New York Times / NPR / NBC News / CNN / Bloomberg / Axios / Associated Press)

6/ Senate Democrats demanded a “complete accounting” of private donations funding Trump’s $300 million White House ballroom, warning that the “opaque nature of this scheme” suggests Trump is “selling presidential access” to corporate donors. The project, financed by more than three dozen companies including Amazon, Apple, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Lockheed Martin, follows Trump’s demolition of the East Wing without congressional approval or required permits. Lawmakers said the project risks “blatant corruption,” because many donors hold or seek federal contracts. The White House, meanwhile, dismissed the criticism, saying donors were “making the People’s House better for generations to come.” (Washington Post / The Guardian / CNN / The Hill)

7/ Maryland’s Democratic Senate president blocked his party’s plan to redraw the state’s congressional map to counter Republican gains in other states, saying “the risk of redrawing the congressional map in Maryland is too high.” Bill Ferguson said mid-cycle redistricting carried “catastrophic” legal risks and could trigger retaliation from Republican-led states. Gov. Wes Moore, meanwhile, said Maryland “needs to have a backbone” as national Democrats have urged the state to “respond aggressively.” (Washington Post / Politico / NBC News)

8/ The Justice Department placed two federal prosecutors on leave hours after they described the Jan. 6 attack as “a mob of rioters” in a sentencing memo. The filing concerned Taylor Taranto, a Jan. 6 defendant pardoned by Trump who was later convicted on weapons and hoax-threat charges after appearing near Obama’s home. Assistant U.S. Attorneys Carlos Valdivia and Samuel White, who wrote the memo, were replaced after it was withdrawn from the court docket. U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro, meanwhile, said the department “will continue to vigorously pursue justice against those who commit or threaten violence without regard to the political party of the offender or the target.” (Politico / ABC News / Washington Post / NBC News / New York Times / Reuters)

  • Trump demanded that former special counsel Jack Smith and others be “investigated and put in prison,” calling Smith “a criminal” in a Truth Social post. The post linked to a report about an FBI probe that led to Smith’s investigation of Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election. Trump has recently urged prosecutions of former FBI Director James Comey, Sen. Adam Schiff, and New York Attorney General Letitia James, all of whom were later indicted by his administration. (NBC News)

9/ A Democratic congressional candidate in Illinois was indicted by a federal grand jury for allegedly impeding an ICE agent during a protest last month outside the agency’s Broadview facility. The indictment charges six defendants with conspiracy and assault or impeding an officer, alleging they blocked a government vehicle, “banged aggressively” on it, etched “PIG” into the surface, and broke a mirror and rear wiper. The candidate, Kat Abughazaleh, called the case “a political prosecution and a gross attempt to silence dissent” and “an attack on all of our First Amendment rights.” (Associated Press / NBC News / Politico / ABC News / Axios / Chicago Sun-Times)

  • A federal judge ordered Border Patrol official Gregory Bovino to report to her daily on Chicago immigration operations after citing apparent violations of court limits on force and chemical agents. U.S. District Judge Sara Ellis reiterated her restraining order requiring clear warnings before tear gas, demanded use-of-force reports and body-camera footage, and told Bovino to wear a camera. Ellis said, “Kids dressed in Halloween costumes walking to a parade do not pose an immediate threat,” referencing recent residential incidents. (Block Club Chicago / PBS News / CNN / Politico / New York Times)

10/ Two weeks after millions of Americans joined “No Kings” protests in the U.S., South Korea presented Trump with a replica gold crown. Trump was also awarded the Grand Order of Mugunghwa, making him the first U.S. president to receive South Korea’s highest civil honor. “I’d like to wear it right now,” Trump said. Later in the day, the two governments finalized a trade deal lowering U.S. tariffs on South Korean goods, including autos, to 15% in exchange for $350 billion in Korean investment. (Reuters / Axios / Bloomberg / Washington Post / New York Times / Politico)

  • ✨ Well, that’s fantastic.

  • Trump finally acknowledged that “it’s pretty clear, I’m not allowed to run” for a third, unconstitutional term, after months of suggesting he might try anyway. Speaking aboard Air Force One on Wednesday, he called it “too bad” but said there were “a lot of great people.” His comments come a day after House Speaker Mike Johnson said he saw no “path” around the 22nd Amendment and that changing the Constitution would take a decade. Trump had joked about “Trump 2028” hats and a possible Vance–Rubio ticket, while Stephen Bannon once claimed there was “a plan” for a third term. Trump also dismissed a scheme to return as vice president as “too cute.” (Bloomberg / CNN / Axios / New York Times / NBC News / Washington Post)

⏭️ Notably Next: Your government has been shut down for 29 days; the 2026 midterms are in 370 days.

Last year today: Day 1379: "Turn the page."
Seven years ago today: Day 648: Purveyor of hate speech.